2025 Global Luxury Real Estate Forecast

The Global Luxury Real Estate Forecast explores the state of high-end property markets around the world, with expert insights and predictions from our international network of affiliates.

The Global Luxury Real Estate Forecast explores the state of high-end property markets around the world, with expert insights and predictions from our international network of affiliates. What’s Inside

A Letter From the CEOs

We are pleased to present the Christie’s International Real Estate 2025 Global Luxury Real Estate Forecast, our yearly report exploring key questions, insights and trends shaping luxury real estate around the world in the coming year. The new year brings renewed optimism from Christie’s International Real Estate affiliates, many of whom predict continued luxury demand along with additional inventory in their respective markets. While we hope this rings true, we know the outlook is contingent on a multitude of factors, not the least of which are mortgage interest rates, which remain at elevated levels, at least in the U.S. But other factors bode positively for luxury real estate in the coming year. Equities did well for investors in 2024, with the S&P 500 index coming off its best two-year run in more than 20 years. The report’s Regional Market Forecast delves into the microtrends impacting some of the world’s top luxury markets from the point of view of our local Christie’s International Real Estate owners and agents. This year’s report also highlights four luxury markets to watch in the coming year, including Madrid, Perth, the Balkan region, and the New Jersey coast in the U.S. These emerging and in-demand markets entice home buyers and investors with local incentives, a high quality of life, strong potential for appreciation and return on investment. Our report also offers a closer look at developing trends for 2025, from a shift to heritage architectural styles, to a heightened focus on privacy and security, to some of the newest and most requested luxury amenities.

We also examine the impact of climate on the real estate market in cities around the globe and look back on some of our network’s top sales in 2024. The strength of the Christie’s International Real Estate brand lies with our network of affiliates, and we are incredibly proud to partner with a growing list of leading luxury firms around the world. Over the past year, we brought our exceptional client service and international reach to 21 new markets, including Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam; Luxembourg, Bulgaria and Albania; and two of the world’s leading wine regions, Napa Valley and Western Australia. Several exciting announcements are already on tap for early 2025. Meanwhile, we continue to nurture our partnership with Christie’s auction house, facilitating two-way referrals benefitting clients looking to purchase or sell real estate, fine art and luxury goods. We are happy to share the 2025 Global Luxury Real Estate Forecast with you, and we thank all of our affiliates who provided insightful data and commentary. Please visit christiesrealestate.com and follow us on social media for more information, and the world’s finest luxury properties.

Sincerely

Thad Wong and Mike Golden, Co-CEOs, Christie’s International Real Estate

The State of Luxury: Regional Market Outlook

Luxury real estate brokers from around the world assess local market conditions and offer predictions for the year ahead

With market-leading affiliates spanning nearly 50 countries and territories, the Christie’s International Real Estate network has unmatched insight into key luxury destinations across the globe. For our 2025 forecast, we surveyed our affiliates to inquire about their local market predictions.

Inventory Expectations

SIGNIFICANTLY MORE

MODERATELY LESS 2%

SIGNIFICANTLY MORE

STAY THE SAME 42%

STAY THE SAME 26%

MODERATELY MORE 53%

MODERATELY MORE 63%

AMERICAS

EMEA & APAC

Demand Expectations

DECREASE MODERATELY 2%

INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY 11%

DECREASE MODERATELY

16%

INCREASE MODERATELY 42%

STAY THE SAME 24%

16%

INCREASE MODERATELY 63%

STAY THE SAME 26%

INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY

AMERICAS

EMEA & APAC

Price Expectations

INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY 2%

DECREASE MODERATELY

20%

STAY THE SAME 26%

DECREASE MODERATELY 37%

STAY THE SAME 26%

INCREASE MODERATELY 52%

INCREASE MODERATELY 37%

AMERICAS

EMEA & APAC

The following is a closer look at the state of luxury in leading real estate markets around the world.

THE UNITED STATES

NEW YORK

Presidential election years typically freeze real estate markets, but 2024 was an exception to the rule for New York City. International buyers, looking for safe places to invest, kept the market moving throughout the year as well as leading up to the election, and Sonja Cullaro, EVP of Christie’s International Real Estate Group, estimates that foreign buying activity increased 20% to 30% from 2023. “Unrest around the world is driving activity in New York,” says Cullaro. However, Manhattan remains a buyer’s market with supply outstripping demand, and prices down by mid-single digits on a percentage basis in 2024. In terms of the luxury market, it’s in a sort of state of limbo, notes Christie’s International Real Estate Group CEO Ilija Pavlovic. Older co-ops, where deferred maintenance raises questions about the total cost of ownership, have fallen out of favor among luxury buyers, especially younger generations, while new development has been negatively impacted by higher interest rates. “There is less building going on in New York City,” says Pavlovic, noting that filings for new buildings in Q324 were 43% below their average since 2008. “Interest rates have had a much greater impact on development than on homebuying. It completely changes the math for these projects, and many won’t get built,” he says. But Cullaro and Pavlovic are optimistic about 2025. Wall Street bonuses figure to be substantial given the equity markets’ strong performance in 2024, while global Bitcoin investors are likely to shift some holdings into stable, hard assets like Manhattan real estate following the cryptocurrency’s 500% rise over the past two years. Meanwhile, luxury suburban inventory across the Tri-State area remains tight. Mortgage rates in the high 6s to low 7s continue to keep sellers glued to their current homes and home loans, and a much-hoped-for 5% range seems increasingly far off given end-of-year comments from the Fed.

“If interest rates go down, sellers will finally sell and release more inventory, which will also stabilize prices for buyers,” says Cullaro.

But both parties may have to wait a little while longer.

MIAMI

Miami continues to thrive as a global destination for luxury real estate, supported by an influx of domestic and international buyers seeking both primary residences and investment opportunities. Edgardo Defortuna, president and CEO of Fortune Christie’s International Real Estate in Miami says, “In 2024, we observed robust demand for ultra-luxury properties, driven by favorable tax policies, high-net-worth migration, and Miami’s reputation as a dynamic cultural and financial hub.” Inventory in key segments has remained tight, resulting in a competitive market where cash offers and quick closings are common. This resulted in a 6.6% annual increase in the number of home sales over $1 million in Miami-Dade County and a 9.3% increase in Broward County, according to data from Fortune. “Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a continuation of strong demand, bolstered by Miami’s evolving infrastructure, the expansion of luxury branded developments, and increased interest from buyers across Europe and Latin America. While rising interest rates may temper activity in some segments, the luxury tier is expected to remain resilient, as affluent buyers often operate independently of traditional financing. A key trend to watch is the increasing demand for properties that offer wellness and lifestyle amenities,” Defortuna says.

LOS ANGELES

Editor’s Note: The devastating wildfires that tore through Los Angeles County in January, destroying – as of this writing – thousands of homes, claiming at least two dozen human lives, and causing what is estimated to be more than $50 billion in property damage, will affect the local market in ways we have not yet begun to understand. While our original forecast for the Los Angeles luxury market included commentary on the 18-month-old Mansion Tax, the influx of international buyers and a number of headline-generating sales, we felt it was inappropriate to focus on those topics while so many people throughout the area continue to battle to save their homes or find new ones.

We applaud the Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California agents – and all agents throughout the region, some of whom have lost their own homes – for stepping forward to help house their fellow Angelenos in this time of need.

We also commend Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California founder and CEO, Aaron Kirman, along with the leaders of a number of other Los Angeles-area brokerage firms, for calling on local government officials to adjust certain policies in an effort to rebuild impacted neighborhoods and protect the area from future disasters. Those measures include pausing the Measure ULA Mansion Tax; exempting local building departments, builders and homeowners from certain code restrictions that would prevent expeditious rebuilding; pausing property taxes on homes destroyed by fire until those properties can be rebuilt or reassessed at land value; and increasing fire insurance coverage under the state of California’s FAIR Plan.

Our hearts are with Los Angeles.

SAN FRANCISCO

The San Francisco Bay Area luxury real estate market is poised for a strong 2025, driven by renewed buyer interest, steadily building supply and growing market optimism, notes Jessica Grimes, growth and brand strategist at Christie’s International Real Estate San Francisco | Marin | Wine Country. A key catalyst for this turnaround is the city of San Francisco. Home prices there have fallen by double digits from their 2022 peak, creating value opportunities that buyers are now eager to seize. Optimism is bolstered by a newly elected mayor focused on public safety, business development and the construction of new housing. Meanwhile, across the broader Bay Area, a constrained market over the past two years has been shaped by buyer hesitation and limited quality inventory. However, market improvement toward the end of 2024 signaled a positive trend for the year ahead. Chris Trapani, co-founder and CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno says, “October and November saw a 20% increase in the number of homes sold compared to the prior year, and sellers who have delayed listing their homes are beginning to enter the market, adding momentum to inventory growth.” The region is also benefiting from increased tech sector valuations, according to several local Christie’s International Real Estate agents. The Magnificent Seven group of tech mega-caps averaged eye- popping returns of nearly 69% in 2024, compared with a merely spectacular 25% for the S&P 500. With a repeat performance of those numbers unlikely in 2025, the market is apt to see a number of wealthy homebuyers within the tech ecosystem converting their stock gains into property investments, thereby driving activity across Silicon Valley and the greater Bay Area. “We have growing confidence that 2025 will bring renewed energy and momentum to the Bay Area and mark the beginning of a multi-year up cycle for the local real estate market,” says Trapani.

CHICAGO

A surge in luxury sales in the second half of 2024 is expected to continue throughout 2025, as activity in the top echelon of the Windy City market hits its stride. Prices in Chicago’s luxury real estate sector continue to climb, with price growth outpacing most other major metropolitan areas, and the U.S. national average. From July through December 2024, the market saw an unprecedented number of homes list for $10 million and above, many quickly going under contract. At the same time, the Chicago area also experienced a raft of record-breaking prices for properties in the $3-$5 million range. In all, 2024 closings for Chicago-area homes priced at $4 million and up – the upper end of the city’s real estate market – jumped 35% over 2023. This upward trajectory reflects a renewed confidence in the market among buyers and sellers, according to George Schultz, an @properties Christie’s International Real Estate managing broker in Chicago. Schultz also pointed to Chicago’s relative affordability as a draw for luxury buyers. “For its size and sophistication, Chicago is one of the most affordable large cities in America in any luxury category. You simply get so much more value from a condo, townhome or single-family home in Chicago than in other large cities in America,” says Schultz. Schultz also cites the city’s world-renowned arts scene and growing financial and tech sectors as reasons high- net-worth individuals are making the move to the city. Downtown condo sales are the one slow spot in the market. Condos in the heart of the city continue to sell below asking prices, largely driven by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated crime downtown and led to widespread office closures.

BOSTON

Persistent low inventory and high demand give sellers an advantage in this New England hub, while home prices are expected to continue to rise.

The luxury segment of the Boston market is predominantly driven by condo sales, especially at newer towers in the Back Bay and Seaport districts, according to Slater Anderson, managing director at Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate LandVest. Overall, median condo prices are up slightly year-over-year, with Seaport and Back Bay, the top two luxury submarkets, showing annual price appreciation within 5% to 7%.

As of late 2024, there were six sales over $10 million in Boston, compared to 18 in the same timeframe in 2023.

In 2025, Anderson predicts that Boston will remain a seller’s market, albeit one with slightly more inventory. “We should see demand increase moderately, and with it, prices. Expect home inspections and contingencies, less popular in recent years, to make a resurgence,” he adds.

NAPLES, FLORIDA

Naples, the hub of Florida’s southwest coast, is consistently a red-hot market and shows no signs of cooling in 2025. In the luxury segment, waterfront properties and new construction continue to be in high demand, while prices continue to edge upward, according to Ron Howard, EVP of sales for John R. Wood Christie’s International Real Estate in southwest Florida. While traditionally, Naples has seen a heavy influx of Midwestern buyers, the market is seeing an increasing number of buyers from the Western U.S., as well as Canada. Naples is seeing an influx of new construction, with newer properties replacing older homes in some of Naples’ most established waterfront neighborhoods, including Coquina Sands, Moorings and Park Shore. Branded residences have arrived in Naples, with blue-chip developments from the Ritz-Carlton and Four Seasons currently under construction, adding more excitement and inventory to an already in-demand market. Sales records in Naples continue to be broken, evidence of the ongoing demand for properties in the region. In 2024, the tony enclave of Port Royal saw a .95-acre waterfront listing at 3675 Fort Charles Drive trade for $36,490,000. The home, listed by John R. Wood Christie’s International Real Estate, was the most expensive home ever sold in the neighborhood. In 2025, Howard predicts a rise in luxury inventory and a moderate increase in prices, while demand will increase significantly. He expects a balanced market, with an uptick in cash buyers, with continued interest in amenity-rich communities and clubs.

DALLAS, TEXAS

For the seventh consecutive year, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex (DFW) has secured its place among the top real estate markets in the U.S., with PwC and the Urban Land Institute dubbing the neighboring cities as the #1 region to invest in for 2025. Jerry Mooty, CEO of @properties lone star Christie’s International Real Estate predicts that buyer activity, showings, and overall transactions will continue to rise in 2025 as the area experiences a resurgence in buyer confidence and market activity. Despite a 2024 slowdown across many parts of Dallas, luxury enclaves like Highland Park, Preston Hollow and University Park have maintained their allure, driven by low inventory levels and a steady influx of demand.

While the median price across DFW slightly adjusted downward by 1.5%, luxury areas recorded price increases of up to 2%.

Texas continues to attract Fortune 500 companies and entrepreneurial ventures at an unprecedented pace. From SpaceX to Chevron, eight global companies moved their headquarters to Texas in 2024, citing low taxes, light regulations, and a relatively low cost of living. This bodes well for DFW’s luxury market, according to Mooty. “Company relocations bring growth, as well as C-level executives to the market, so we expect higher priced homes in the luxury areas of the market to continue to hold steady or increase in the coming year.”

AUSTIN, TEXAS

Following years of soaring home prices and volatility in Texas’ capital city, 2024 brought more stability to Austin’s real estate market.

The city’s booming tech and innovation industries continue to attract high-income earners, sustaining demand for luxury homes. “Major investments, such as Samsung’s $20 billion semiconductor facility and Tesla’s ongoing expansion in the region, further strengthen Austin’s economic appeal and its luxury housing market,” says Romeo Manzanilla, COO and broker of record for @properties lone star Christie’s International Real Estate. Manzanilla predicts Austin’s luxury home prices will continue to decline slightly throughout 2025, similar to many luxury real estate markets that experienced a boom during and immediately after the pandemic.

THE CARIBBEAN

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

The U.S. Virgin Islands experienced a strong 2024, characterized by notable price gains and growing international interest in the region. Taken as a whole, the U.S. Virgin Islands saw a price increase of 17% for listings over US$1 million, many of which spent very little time on the market.

In St. John, despite a slight drop in overall transactions, the market remains robust, driven by a strong demand for high-end properties, especially villas, according to Keleigh Rees, managing director of Islandia Christie’s International Real Estate.

Market predictions for 2025 indicate continued demand, particularly in affluent areas such as Chocolate Hole, Rendezvous Bay and Peter Bay. However, the pace of price appreciation may slow as evolving global economic factors and declining mortgage rates make properties slightly more accessible. Rental properties, especially short-term vacation rentals, are expected to remain profitable as tourism thrives on the island. St. Croix has seen steady growth from high-net-worth individuals, especially those looking for a second or third home. And continued growth of St. Croix’s flourishing tourism sector is predicted to make the island’s luxury real estate market even more competitive, according to Rees. “As we approach 2025, the St. Croix market is expected to experience further appreciation driven by a combination of factors, including global economic shifts, a growing interest in remote work, and the island’s increasing reputation as a desirable destination,” she says.

EUROPE

PARIS

Daniel Feau Conseil Immobilier, the Paris affiliate of Christie’s International Real Estate, reports that the housing market in the French capital has found its floor, with the average price per square meter having fallen approximately 13% below its 2022 peak.

“The consensus is that after this clear drop in prices, the current level reflects the new balance between buyers and sellers, and the number of sales for the middle market is now recovering,” says Charles-Marie Jottras, broker-owner of the agency.

However, luxury homebuyers with designs on finding a bargain are far less likely to succeed. That’s because Paris’ high-end market remains stalwart. “Luxury assets and exceptional properties are, as always, keenly sought after in the capital, and for sales over €4 million, the average price per square meter has even increased 3% over the past two years despite sharply higher interest rates,” says Jottras. This is not surprising given the perpetually limited nature of luxury homes for sale in Paris. “Paris is a scarcity market, especially in the upper bracket,” Jottras adds. “Wealthy French buyers remain in competition with international investors, notably U.S. citizens, for limited inventory.” The most desirable properties are apartments and townhomes in move-in condition, which, on the much-coveted Left Bank, can sell for €40,000 per square meter and up. Jottras’ firm recently sold two such properties in Saint-Germain-de- Près for €18 million and €20 million, respectively. One buyer was an American. “In 2025 we predict this sellers’ market will continue,” Jottras says.

MUNICH

Munich remains one of the most sought-after cities in Germany for buyers looking to fulfill their dream of exclusive homeownership, according to Kurt Distler, management consultant at RIEDEL, the Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate in Munich. “Following a period of restraint, demand for luxury properties has significantly increased in recent months,” he explains. This demand was reflected in RIEDEL’s portfolio, in which the total number of sales of properties over $1 million increased by 30% in 2024. This trend indicates a potential shift back towards a seller’s market. Currently, though, higher interest rates and slightly tempered price developments still present selective opportunities for negotiations, while rising demand could significantly limit the availability of sought- after properties in prime locations such as Bogenhausen, Lehel, and Nymphenburg, according to Distler. Buyers who prioritize spacious layouts, modern technology, and high-end features should act strategically to capitalize on current market conditions. Properties with sustainable features, high energy efficiency, and a focus on privacy remain highly desirable. Munich continues to be a stable and secure investment, supported by its economic strength and ongoing population growth. The market in 2025 is expected to gain momentum, with buyers who act swiftly likely to secure long- term benefits in a competitive environment.

LONDON

London is the hub of Europe’s luxury real estate market (which perhaps makes it the hub of the world’s), and despite a number of recent government maneuvers that impact property transfers, experts predict relative stability in the year ahead.

Several developments roiled the market in 2024. The year brought a snap election that saw the Labour Party take control of the U.K. government for the first time in 14 years; a new budget that imposed higher stamp duties on the purchase of second homes and residential investment properties; and changes to the country’s long-standing non-dom tax regime, a popular shelter benefiting U.K. residents who claim another country as their permanent home. “While the Labour victory originally brought a sense of stability beneficial to the housing market, it was short-lived. Instead, we experienced a prolonged lead-up to their first budget, accompanied by economic warnings which did little to build confidence,” explains David Ruddock, head of residential sales operations for Carter Jonas, the U.K. affiliate of Christie’s International Real Estate. “This uncertainty did affect the high-end market, with more [homeowners] looking to sell before anticipated tax hikes.”

“Buyers, on the other hand, were more cautious and preferred to wait until the budget came at the end of October. When it was released, it was generally well received, leading to a November market that was more active than normal,” he adds.

Regulatory factors will continue to impact the market in 2025, notes Shereen Akhtar, associate partner at Carter Jonas; however, international buyers who value the U.K.’s leading universities, cosmopolitan culture and stable financial system will still look to London ahead of other European capitals for luxury real estate purchases.

Ruddock agrees. “We have not seen a drop-off in people coming from overseas,” he says. “For people who were moving here to gain non-dom status, there are other reasons that are more important than the taxation piece.”

MADRID

In 2025, all eyes are on Madrid as the Spanish capital continues to attract buyers both locally and from around the world. This consistently high demand can be attributed to the country’s economic stability, a wide range of real estate options, favorable tax policies and the city’s vibrant, friendly culture, according to Olga García Hernández, managing director and partner at Christie’s International Real Estate Madrid.

Notably, Madrid has seen an increase in young professionals and entrepreneurs seeking luxury properties as primary residences, second homes or investment assets.

All of this demand, however, exceeds the supply of luxury housing in Madrid, putting upward pressure on prices and enhancing the exclusivity of the market. This was never truer than in 2024, when in April, housing prices jumped by nearly 11% year over year, the highest such surge in Europe. This squeeze on the market has done little to spur new construction in Madrid, according to García Hernández. “While we’ve seen an increase in the renovation of luxury properties, as well as some high-end development, new house building remains at historic lows,” she says. “Combine that with an unyielding demand, and we can predict continued price growth well into 2025.”

ROME

Italy’s capital city continues to be a market to watch. The upward trend in prices that began in 2020 is accelerating, with the most significant growth in Rome’s luxury segment and in highly sought-after areas like the historic city center.

Rome has “once again become attractive to large real estate investors, not just foreigners,” according to Massimiliano Bulzoni, managing director of Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate Exclusive RE in Rome. This is partly due to Italy’s Flat Tax Regime for Foreign Workers, also known as the RND, a government program that provides a significant tax advantage for high-income earners relocating to Italy, offering predictability and potentially lower tax burdens compared to standard progressive tax rates. Additionally, Rome is set to host the next Catholic Jubilee – the “Jubilee of Hope” – in 2025, which is expected to attract more than 35 million visitors to the Italian capital. The city is spending nearly US$2 billion to update and enhance the urban landscape ahead of the festival, which will place Rome on the world stage. “As with the 2024 Summer Olympic Games in Paris, we can expect this event to capture the attention of international buyers and investors,” Bulzoni explains.

Looking ahead, the U.S. dollar is forecasted to gain further ground against the Euro in 2025, which could lead to even greater investment from luxury buyers outside Europe, according to Bulzoni.

GENEVA

Geneva’s luxury real estate market stands out for its stability and attractiveness, despite an at times uncertain international economic climate. Global buyers looking for investment security and premium amenities continue to flock to the city and region, with new high-demand areas emerging, according to Maxime Dubus, managing director of SPG One, the Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate in Geneva.

International demand remains strong, particularly for spacious, exclusive properties. Within Geneva, the neighborhoods of Florissant and Champel are gaining popularity, while outside the city, chalets and lakeside properties in the Swiss Alps are booming.

“Demand for high-end properties remains high, but supply is limited, contributing to tension in the market and continued appreciation of prestige properties,” explains Dubus.

Dubus points out that climate is also impacting the market, with Alpine and lakeside regions such as Gstaad and Verbier experiencing an uptick in wealthy buyers in search of cooler temperatures and security in the face of extreme weather conditions.

Looking ahead, the luxury real estate market in Geneva, French-speaking Switzerland and the Swiss Alps is expected to remain highly attractive in 2025.

DUBLIN

In 2024, the luxury end of the market in Dublin experienced another strong year, with a rise in luxury home sales and robust activity, according to Michael Grehan, chairman of Dublin Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate Sherry FitzGerald.

Luxury buyers, both domestic and international, are seeking out rural homes that are still within commuting distance of a major city, as more employers are pushing for a return to the office.

Extreme weather events in other countries have prompted an influx of international buyers to Dublin, drawn to Ireland’s relatively calm and temperate climate. Additionally, post-Brexit, Ireland has welcomed an increasing number of companies looking for a foothold in Europe, increasing the demand for luxury properties.

This migration to Ireland is predicted to increase following the recent U.S. presidential election, which is expected to bring a significant number of American buyers to Ireland in 2025, says Grehan.

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM

Belgium’s luxury real estate sector is predicted to fare better than the rest of its market in 2025. On a global scale, the country’s financial markets are showing signs of stabilization, particularly following the U.S. presidential election, which has brought a degree of economic predictability. “This steadiness is expected to bolster investor confidence, benefiting Belgium’s luxury real estate market, especially in high-demand areas like Brussels where international appeal remains high,” says Bart Van Delm, managing director at Christie’s Real Estate Belgium. Lending conditions are predicted to improve, with the European Central Bank expected to further lower interest rates. Buyers may benefit from more attractive credit terms as well, enhancing purchasing power and subsequently driving home sales.

MALTA

Malta’s luxury real estate market is poised for a robust 2025, with the country’s Citizenship by Investment and Permanent Residency programs looming large as other EU countries scale back programs aimed at attracting foreign buyers. The island nation holds strong appeal for non-Europeans looking to establish residency in the EU, as well as Europeans seeking more favorable tax regimes. Malta targets foreign buyers with several benefits, including the ability to purchase property in Special Designated Areas granting the same ownership rights as Maltese citizens; low corporate taxes; booming financial, tech and gaming sectors; and an ideal Mediterranean climate. For these reasons and others, the country is seeing heightened activity among buyers from the U.S., U.K., Switzerland, Belgium and China, according to Miguel Bonello of Oyster Christie’s International Real Estate. Tourism is also booming, with the country welcoming nearly 20% more visitors in 2024 compared to the year before. “This sector’s rapid growth presents lucrative opportunities for real estate investment, particularly in the short-term rental market - another draw for foreign investors,” says Bonello. Malta also reflects a number of themes prevalent in this year’s Luxury Forecast, including wellness, sustainability, security and heritage architecture. “Malta’s blend of modern and historical architecture offers buyers homes with a distinct story,“ says Bonello. “Properties with award-winning designs, heritage status, or those located in culturally significant neighborhoods are viewed as unique investments, aligning with the growing desire for luxury that is both exclusive and meaningful.” “Looking ahead, we expect interest from international markets to continue growing, driven by global economic factors, changes in residency and citizenship laws, and the increasing trend of remote work,” he adds.

THE MIDDLE EAST

DUBAI

The Dubai market went white-hot in 2024, smashing records. The first half of the year saw a total of US$63.5 billion in sales across 80,000 transactions, increases of approximately 30% year over year and the most sales ever for the city in a half-year period.

“This was fueled in large part by the booming off-plan market,” says Jackie Johns, managing partner at Christie’s International Real Estate Dubai. Off-plan sales are sales in planned new-construction developments. “Remarkably, 80% of all off-plan units launched since 2022 have been sold – this in a city where 1Q24 saw more than one off-plan launch per day.” The market continues to attract buyers from diverse regions including the U.K., India, China, Europe, and North America. Dubai welcomed more than 6,500 millionaires in 2024, drawn by favorable tax regimes – the United Arab Emirates has no real estate, capital gains or income tax – as well as the UAE’s Golden visa program, which allows individuals to obtain residency for 10 years if they own property valued at a minimum of AED 2 million. The market is also seen as secure amid current global instability. Rental yields are another area where Dubai shines. The market currently provides annual returns of 5-8% on residential rentals and higher yields on short-term rentals. Off-plan properties can appreciate by 30% or more between the start of construction and when a buyer takes possession. Johns says that branded residences will take center stage in 2025 as international buyers seek familiarity in luxury big-ticket purchases. Additionally, she is noticing an increased focus on sustainable development, especially following the COP28 Summit (United Nations Climate Change Conference), which Dubai hosted in 2023.

AFRICA

CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa’s capital and second-largest city, Cape Town’s property market had a buoyant 2024, characterized by limited stock and high demand, which continued to drive prices upward. The region saw a 14% increase in the average sales price of properties over US$1 million year over year, with demand partially coming from outside the country, as Cape Town continues to attract considerable interest from foreign buyers. “Cape Town’s appeal is particularly strong among European tourists, many of whom are drawn to its natural beauty and opt for property ownership to facilitate regular summer visits,” says Mike Greeff, CEO of Greeff Christie’s International Real Estate, which services the region. This trend is encouraged by favorable currency conversions, especially from the U.S. dollar and the British pound, allowing investors to enjoy Cape Town’s exceptional lifestyle at a comparatively lower cost.

ASIA

SINGAPORE

Singapore’s luxury property market is one of the most unique in the world – subject to tight government control, highly limited supply and near-perpetual demand among a variety of affluent constituents including locals, expats and private investors that operate with an institutional level of sophistication. “For a little island, we play an outsized role, economically, in the global context. Fortunes are made in Singaporean real estate,” says Harmeet Singh Bedi, a long-time finance and real estate executive who, along with partner Himmat Singh, launched Christie’s International Real Estate Singapore earlier this year. After a decade of torrid growth driven in large part by international real estate investment, Singapore imposed an Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) of 60% in 2023 to limit foreign buying activity. The measure succeeded in cooling runaway price appreciation, although demand remains high, especially for luxury condos in the Core Central Region (CCR). Marketwide, the average sales price retreated a mere 1.3%, according to data from edgeprop.sg and Christie’s International Real Estate Singapore. However, in the CCR, the average price per square meter rose 5.2% to US$23,885 in 2Q24 vs. the year-earlier period. The ABSD is also driving up rental demand and pricing. “With the high ABSD making it less attractive for foreigners to purchase luxury properties, there is an increased demand for high-end rental properties,” Singh Bedi says. “Landlords seized this opportunity, recognizing the potential for lucrative rental yields.”

In addition, the narrowing price gap between the CCR and other regions has prompted affluent Singaporeans to invest in high- end properties.

Looking ahead, the government has recently released a number of prime sites for residential development, including locations along Orchard Boulevard and Upper Thomson Road. These projects are expected to attract significant interest from developers and buyers alike. Other trends to watch, according to Singh, include the growth of suburban areas beyond the CCR; a rise in the popularity of mixed-use developments and the convenience and amenities they offer for both local and expat buyers; and a growing emphasis on sustainable property development.

Emerging Markets: Four to Watch in 2025

International buyers, tax incentives and new luxury developments are among the factors driving demand in four emerging markets around the world

From the west coast of Australia to the capital of Spain, four global markets are poised to be top prospects for luxury real estate investment in 2025. Here, we highlight these markets to watch in the new year.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Christie’s International Real Estate has identified four global luxury real estate markets on the rise in 2025, from the west coast of Australia to the east coast of the U.S.

• A host of factors are spurring demand in these markets, including high quality of life, relative value, strong local economies and tax incentives

• In many markets, high demand is spurring a wealth of new developments, adding excitement and interest

PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The economic engine and capital of Western Australia, Perth is embarking on a major expansion of its luxury real estate market. Set along the far west coast of Australia, the nation’s fourth-largest city traditionally has flown under the radar for international buyers and investors. But interest in Western Australia has exploded in recent years, with the state experiencing the fastest population growth in the nation, largely driven by overseas migration. According to Shelley Scorer, CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Western Australia and South Australia, a host of factors are pushing the market for luxury property in Perth, not the least of which is affordability compared to cities on the country’s east coast such as Sydney and Melbourne. Factor in Perth’s temperate climate, extensive parks and beaches, a vibrant wine region to the south, nature reserves, the government’s record AU$10.6 billion infrastructure investment, low unemployment, quality schools and universities, and excellent health care – and it’s not hard to see why Perth is attracting attention. Prices for luxury single-family residences in and around Perth range from AU$1.5-30 million, Scorer says. Some of the most sought-after luxury properties are in the city’s western suburbs, including Cottesloe and Peppermint Grove. In this area, locally known as the “Golden Triangle,” homes typically sell for around AU$3-4 million. And Perth is a dream for international travelers with direct flights to more than 50 destinations in 18 countries. What’s more, the city’s airport is the only one “down under” with non-stop flights to Europe—via Qantas’ daily service to London, Paris, and Rome.

MADRID, SPAIN

The second-largest city in the European Union, Madrid is the political, economic and cultural center of Spain and the leading economic hub of southern Europe. The city’s luxury property market has been undergoing notable growth, sustained by a robust economy, labor market stability, and significant foreign investment, particularly from North America and Latin America. Spain’s economy was projected to increase by 3% in 2024 – four times faster than the rest of the Eurozone. The country’s economic stability has been fundamental for its real estate market, bolstering market confidence, encouraging investment, and generally sustaining high demand. An upward pressure on prices, especially in central and well- connected transit nodes, is a natural consequence of high demand, which can make property purchases both attractive and more expensive, says Hans Veenhuijsen, owner and CEO of Christie’s International Real Estate Madrid. While historic properties in prestigious neighborhoods like Salamanca and Chamberí remain popular, high-end developments are transforming areas such as Madrid Río and northern districts like Chamartín. Additionally, Madrid has seen an increase in sustainable building practices, catering to environmentally conscious buyers. Luxury properties in the exclusive Salamanca district fetch some of the highest prices in the nation, averaging €8,000 to €22,000 per square meter (US$781-$2,044/sq ft). Since 2013, the country’s Golden Visa program has been a boon to the market, allowing residency in exchange for real estate purchases of more than €500,000 (US$525,483). However, the program, enacted to boost the Spanish economy and increase foreign investment, has sunset as of January 1, 2025. Emerging trends such as telecommuting could influence the demand for housing in peripheral areas if professionals choose to live farther from the city center, while the development of new infrastructure and urban projects could alter market dynamics, Veenhuijsen adds.

He is optimistic about the continued growth of the Madrid real estate market through 2025. “Demand is likely to remain strong, but investors and buyers should be mindful of fluctuations and emerging trends that could impact the market,” he says.

MONMOUTH COUNTY, NEW JERSEY, USA

It’s no longer simply “The Shore.” From Asbury Park to Long Branch, coastal Monmouth County, New Jersey, is emerging as a prime marketplace for luxury real estate.

With vibrant seafront communities, expansive suburbs, great beaches, and fine dining, sporting and cultural attractions—and easy access to Manhattan in under an hour– high-end developers and luxury buyers are betting on the Jersey Shore.

“We are seeing an increasing number of high-net-worth buyers from across the Tri-State Area thanks to a spate of new developments in Long Branch, truly an emerging luxury hotspot along the New Jersey coast,” says Sonja Cullaro, co-founder and executive vice president of Christie’s International Real Estate Group. One such development is The Atlantic Club, a new, luxury seaside condominium building featuring 132 one- to five-bedroom units with oceanfront views. Scheduled for completion in 2026, The Atlantic Club offers more than 75,000 square feet of lifestyle amenities including an oceanfront pool, yoga and cycling studios, a children’s playroom, and spaces dedicated to games, pets, relaxation and even virtual reality (VR) activities.

One of the project’s penthouses recently sold for US$5.95 million, a record for a condominium in Monmouth County.

Adding to the momentum, global streaming service Netflix is currently planning a US$900 million production studio on the site of a 289-acre former military base near the shore in Oceanport, N.J. The project has received planning approvals, with the promise of 3,500 construction jobs and 1,500 permanent production hires. Overall, the Monmouth County real estate market saw a 4% increase in residential sales over US$1 million in 2024 compared to 2023, an upward trend that Cullaro has seen firsthand at her firm. “Of our top sales last year, about 70% came from Monmouth County and 30% from Bergen County. Usually it’s the opposite,” she notes.

ALBANIA AND BULGARIA

The southeastern European countries of Albania and Bulgaria are emerging as two luxury markets to watch. Both stable, parliamentary democracies and NATO members, the countries shed their “gray zone” reputation under communist rule decades ago – and are now poised for rapid luxury real estate growth. Set along the Mediterranean Sea just north of Greece, Albania has attracted a steadily increasing cadre of tourists, investors and developers in recent years, enticed by its pristine beaches, rugged mountains, welcoming culture and stable economic and political climate. “Albania’s real estate market is seeing significant growth in both supply and demand driven by both local and foreign interest, from around Europe and overseas,” says Kris Maranda, managing partner at The Maranda Real Estate Group, the Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate in the country. “With its beautiful landscape and current market conditions, Albania is set to be the next luxury hub in southeast Europe.” The United Nations World Tourism Organization recently ranked Albania as the fastest growing tourist destination in Europe. Developers have also taken notice, with a raft of new development projects underway in the country, including Grand Park Skyline, a luxurious residential tower in the capital city of Tirana, and Farka Lakefront, about six miles southeast. Additional high-end development is taking place on the country’s southwestern coast, along the Albanian Riviera. Folie Village, a new luxury waterfront community exclusively represented by the Maranda Real Estate Group, is scheduled for completion in 2026, while Affinity Partners, the private equity firm headed by Jared Kushner, has plans to redevelop a former military base, Sazan Island, into a luxury Aman-branded eco-resort. For investors seeking high returns on minimal expenditure, Albania’s tax incentives, streamlined procedures for property acquisition, low residential property tax (.05%), and reasonable capital gains tax make the country an attractive option. Affordability advantage over Greece, on Albania’s southern border, and Montenegro, its neighbor to the north, is driving savvy investors to look at Albania, especially as tourists continue to flock to the country. Buyers can expect annual property appreciation rates of 6-7%, according to Maranda.

To the east, Bulgaria beckons with its own beauty, history and an affordability advantage over other eastern and central European countries, despite steadily rising prices and low inventory. Bulgaria’s other advantages include its low tax rates, as well as some of the lowest mortgage rates in Europe, while favorable banking policies have eased access to credit. In the historic capital of Sofia, Bulgaria’s luxury sector saw a 50% year-over-year increase in sales for homes priced at €600,000 (US$643,410) and up in 2023, according to Vesela Ilieva, managing partner of Unique Estates, the exclusive Christie’s International Real Estate affiliate in Bulgaria. In 2024, nearly a third of the company’s listings traded at asking price, and about 15% sold above asking, which, Ilieva says, “demonstrates the confidence and commitment of clients in the success of luxury real estate as a valuable investment.”

“High-quality investment properties with attractive locations, well-maintained communal areas, and proven profitability sell within one to two months and are increasingly sold without any negotiation on the listing price,” Ilieva adds.

From 4Q23 to 1Q24, home prices in Bulgaria rose 7.1%, the largest increase in the EU and the largest jump in the country since 2007. Prices are expected to grow by 15% in 2025.

The market remains very active in traditionally desirable areas within Sofia, including the Lozenets, Iztok and Izgrev neighborhoods. The Doctor’s Garden neighborhood remains one of the priciest areas in the capital, along with other sought-after locations like the area around the historic Alexander Nevsky Cathedral and the National Assembly. In the high-end segment, the average price for an apartment is around €3,500 per square meter (US$334/sq ft), while in iconic locations in Sofia, prices can be twice as high.

“Our expectations are that the luxury real estate market in Sofia and Bulgaria as a whole will remain stable and show growth,” said Ilieva.

Today’s high-net-worth buyers are expressing a renewed preference for architectural styles that reflect the history and natural qualities of their surroundings versus modern forms that have dominated new- home construction over the past decade plus The Pursuit of Authenticity: Luxury Home Buyers are Embracing Homes that Offer Character, History and a Unique Experience

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Luxury buyers are moving away from sleek, cookie-cutter modern styles in favor of homes that prioritize thoughtful design, authentic materials, and a connection to the surrounding environment.

• Buyers are increasingly favoring architecture that reflects the local environment and heritage, such as Victorian and Regency styles in the U.K., and rustic homes in mountainous regions.

Known as the Hemingway House, this Greek revival-style home in Los Angeles, built in 1924, boasts rich hardwood floors, copious built-ins, and period fireplaces throughout.

In a world where even luxury products have taken on a level of homogeneity - think sports sedans, five-star hotels and designer tote bags - more consumers are focusing on “place authenticity.” Psychologists loosely define the term as a unique essence that makes a place feel genuine and alive. This is, in part, why consumers are choosing to spend their money at indie bookstores instead of online or big-box retailers, enjoy their lattes at locally owned coffee shops instead of Starbucks, and purchase homes that offer a sense of character and a connection to history. “The authenticity of a place is about its unique character and essence – the way it is rooted in its cultural, historical, spiritual and experiential dimensions,” writes Ashley Krause, a doctoral candidate at the University of Florida and co-author of a study on this concept. “In other words, the emotional and psychological ties people have with places contribute to their perception of authenticity.”

A MOVE AWAY FROM MODERN

The phenomenon explains why many high-net-worth homebuyers today are shifting their preferences away from sleek, ultra- modern homes, defined by stark lines, open-concept plans and minimalist design, and toward traditional architectural styles, natural materials and richly textured interiors. This trend has been widely noted by real estate agents from around the Christie’s International Real Estate network whose clients have been favoring older (or older-looking) residences, from iconic Frank Lloyd Wright Prairie Style homes in the U.S. to Victorian mansions in the U.K.

In Southern California, a shift to more traditional styles is partly a reaction to the proliferation of modern homes in the 21st century.

“It [modern design] has become the prevailing style in Los Angeles, so now you’re seeing a backlash,” said Aaron Kirman, owner and CEO of Beverly Hills-based Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California. “Traditional and transitional architecture have come back because you can do a lot of amazing things with these homes. In L.A., there are areas where people are just obsessed with traditional architecture.” However, the topography of Southern California will always lend itself to modern structures, notes Kirman. “And then there are certain locations where modern just makes more sense. If you’re on a hill with an amazing view you’re going to want to have as many walls of glass as you can,” he says. “But there are ways you can get a more transitional flow and warmer, more natural tones, and that seems to be very popular.”

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